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Fiscal frame

In plain words

The government plans to spend about 12.6% more in 2027 than in 2026. Most of the extra money is for building things, called capital spending. The risk: in 2026, only a quarter of the building money had been spent by August.

Blue tag opens the government document at that pageCalc a figure we worked outAnalysis our viewAmounts are in Rs mn unless stated. Glossary

What this tells us

More money to build, but building is slow

Money for building rises 24.7% in 2027. Yet only 25.4% of the 2026 building money had been spent by August.

Why it matters. Money that is announced does not always become finished projects in the same year.

What to watch. The Treasury's spending reports during 2027.

Appropriation Bill 2027, p. 37 BEFPR 2027, Table 2.2, p. 28

The plan goes above the legal spending limit

Day-to-day and building spending, before interest, reaches about 13.6% of national income. The law sets a ceiling of 13.0%.

Why it matters. The law allows exceptions after a disaster. Each use makes the limit weaker unless a way back is published.

What to watch. A published path back under the limit.

BEFPR 2027, p. 16

Repaying debt, not interest, drives the fixed costs

Repayments of borrowed money rise 19.0%. Interest rises only 1.0%.

Why it matters. A larger share of the budget is committed before any new programme is chosen.

What to watch. The 2027 borrowing plan.

Calc: Appropriation Bill 2026 Appropriation Bill 2027

The detail follows, with a source tag on every figure.

Fiscal framework

BEFPR 2027 publishes 2027 only as % of GDP. Rupee figures for 2027 are derived. They use implied nominal GDP of about Rs 39.0 tn. Calc: BEFPR 2027

Metric	2026 original, Rs bn	2026 original, % GDP	2026 revised, % GDP	2027 draft, % GDP	2027 draft, Rs bn (derived)
Revenue and grants	5,300 Budget Speech 2026, Annexure I, p. 69	15.4 Budget Speech 2026, Annexure I, p. 69	16.6 BEFPR 2027, Table 1.1, p. 15	15.8 BEFPR 2027, Table 1.1, p. 15	about 6,160 Calc: BEFPR 2027
Tax revenue	4,910 Budget Speech 2026, Annexure I, p. 69	14.2 Budget Speech 2026, Annexure I, p. 69	15.2 BEFPR 2027, Table 1.1, p. 15	14.6 BEFPR 2027, Table 1.1, p. 15	about 5,690 Calc: BEFPR 2027
Total expenditure	7,057; 7,557 with supplementary Budget Speech 2026, Annexure I, p. 69 BEFPR 2027, Table 2.2, p. 28	20.5 Budget Speech 2026, Annexure I, p. 69	20.3 BEFPR 2027, Table 1.1, p. 15	19.7; 20.3 with supplementary BEFPR 2027, Table 1.1, p. 15	about 7,680; about 7,940 Calc: BEFPR 2027
Interest	2,617 Budget Speech 2026, Annexure I, p. 69	7.6 Budget Speech 2026, Annexure I, p. 69	7.3 BEFPR 2027, Table 1.1, p. 15	6.8 BEFPR 2027, Table 1.1, p. 15	about 2,650 Calc: BEFPR 2027
Public investment	1,380; 1,719 with supplementary Budget Speech 2026, Annexure I, p. 69 BEFPR 2027, Table 2.2, p. 28	4.0 Budget Speech 2026, Annexure I, p. 69	4.1 BEFPR 2027, Table 1.1, p. 15	4.5; 5.1 with supplementary BEFPR 2027, Table 1.1, p. 15	about 1,755; about 2,015 Calc: BEFPR 2027
Primary balance	860 Budget Speech 2026, Annexure I, p. 69	2.5 Budget Speech 2026, Annexure I, p. 69	3.6 BEFPR 2027, Table 1.1, p. 15	2.9; 2.3 with supplementary BEFPR 2027, Table 1.1, p. 15	n/a
Budget balance	-1,757 Budget Speech 2026, Annexure I, p. 69	-5.1 Budget Speech 2026, Annexure I, p. 69	-3.7 BEFPR 2027, Table 1.1, p. 15	-3.8; -4.5 with supplementary BEFPR 2027, Table 1.1, p. 15	about -1,480; about -1,755 Calc: BEFPR 2027

Appropriation authority

Item	2026 bill, Rs bn	2027 draft bill, Rs bn	Change
Voted recurrent	3,028.75 Appropriation Bill 2026, First Schedule, p. 37	3,240.24 Appropriation Bill 2027, First Schedule, p. 37	+7.0% Calc: Appropriation Bill 2026 Appropriation Bill 2027
Voted capital	1,405.60 Appropriation Bill 2026, First Schedule, p. 37	1,752.53 Appropriation Bill 2027, First Schedule, p. 37	+24.7% Calc: Appropriation Bill 2026 Appropriation Bill 2027
Total voted	4,434.36 Appropriation Bill 2026, clause 2(1)	4,992.77 Appropriation Bill 2027, clause 2(1)	+12.6% Calc: Appropriation Bill 2026 Appropriation Bill 2027
Charged (mainly debt service)	4,545.64 Appropriation Bill 2026, Second Schedule	4,927.23 Appropriation Bill 2027, Second Schedule, p. 40	+8.4% Calc: Appropriation Bill 2026 Appropriation Bill 2027
Grand total	8,980.0 Calc: Appropriation Bill 2026	9,920.0 Calc: Appropriation Bill 2027	+10.5% Calc: Appropriation Bill 2026 Appropriation Bill 2027
Borrowing limit	3,740 as approved Budget Speech 2026, para 37.1, p. 61	3,800 Appropriation Bill 2027, pp. 2-3	+1.6% Calc: Appropriation Bill 2027 Budget Speech 2026

What the numbers say

Revenue overperformed in 2026. Revenue hit 75.9% of the annual estimate by August. BEFPR 2027, Table 2.2, p. 28
Capex underperformed. Capital spending reached 25.4% by August. BEFPR 2027, Table 2.2, p. 28
The budget ran a surplus. January to August showed a Rs 35.4 bn overall surplus. BEFPR 2027, Table 2.1, p. 25
The 2027 ratio fall is misleading. Rupee revenue still rises about 16% on the 2026 original. Calc: BEFPR 2027 Budget Speech 2026
Debt repayment drives charged growth. Head 249 principal rises Rs 351.9 bn (+19.0%). Interest rises only 1.0%. Calc: Appropriation Bill 2026 Appropriation Bill 2027
The fiscal rule bends in 2027. Primary expenditure reaches about 13.6% of GDP. The statutory ceiling is 13.0%. BEFPR 2027, pp. 6-7, 16
The Ditwah supplementary sits outside the bill. About Rs 260 bn is expected in 2027. BEFPR 2027, pp. 6-7
The IMF programme ends. The US$2.9 bn EFF concludes in March 2027. Sunday Times, 8 Nov 2026 The PFM Act becomes the main anchor. Analysis
Growth assumption is modest. Budget 2027 assumes 4.0% real growth. BEFPR 2027, s. 5.2, p. 91 The IMF projects 3.7%. BEFPR 2027, p. 77 (citing IMF WEO Oct 2026)